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Thurs Aug 12, 10. "Saskatchewan Roughridersface off against British Columbia Lions, with the second highest points average in the CFL against the third best defense this is a game of opposites. By John Ryan at sbforum.com!I got on The Jime Rome radio show Wed July 7 which has approx 4 million listeners and I got to say how I luv the CFL! Talking sports and at times the CFL on 5AA South Australian radio many weeks with Jeff Burzacott. Listen Live on the web!146 of my 165+ Sports MYKwebTV and TotalCFLwebTV shows including lots of Australian Rules Football are now on my YouTube.com
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Saskatchewan Roughridersface off against British Columbia Lions, with the second highest points average in the CFL against the third best defense this is a game of opposites. By John Ryan atsbrforum.com
Week 7 of 19 is here as the Canadian Football League nears the midway point of the season. In the two divisions of the CFL, the West is being led by Calgary with a 5-1 record, then Saskatchewan with a 4-2 record. The last two spots are held by British Columbia and Edmonton both with 1-5 records. The East Division is held by perennial giant Montreal with a 5-1 mark, then Toronto with a 4-2 record and the last two posts held down by Hamilton and Winnipeg with 2-4 records. Considering these standings alone it is not surprising that that Saskatchewan is favored by 8 1/2 points playing at home.
With points scored, Saskatchewan ranks second, scoring 198 points for a 33 points per game average. Montreal is first with 208 points scored for a 34.7 points per game average. BC ranks dead last with just 122 points scored for a 20.3 points per game average. However, BC relies on a strong defense that ranks third allowing 142 points for a 23.6 points per game average. Saskatchewan is dead last having allowed 183 points for a 30.5 points per game average.
So, this is a game pitting complete opposites and your wining bet will be based on whether the BC defense will contain the Saskatchewan offense or whether the BC defense will be able to attack the weak Saskatchewan defense and score more points than in any other game to date.
Using a statistic, coined yards per point scored (YPPG) and yards per point allowed (YPPA), really opens up a clear assessment of how a team is playing. A solid team has a YPPG that is less than the YPPA and the greater the differential between the two the stronger the team performance. For example, Montreal becomes a dominant team in the CFL posting a top ranked YPPG at 11.6 while allowing a YPPA of 17.2. What this means is that the offense needs only to gain an average of 11.6 yards to score one point and the defense forces offense to have gain 17.2 yards to score one point.
For this matchup it is not surprising that BC ranks 7th needing to gain 16.7 yards to score one point. They rank second to Montreal on defense with a 16.9 YPPA. Saskatchewan is tied for 5th in both categories with a 14.6 YPPG and 14.1 YPPA. This may show some smoke and mirrors on in the Saskatchewan side of the ball, but looking at the strength of schedule can resolve any statistical skew. Saskatchewan has played Montreal twice already and has covered both games so their yards per point stats are skewed a bit and reflect that Saskatchewan's defense is not as poor and their offense may a bit stronger than past performance reflects. BC has played a tough schedule in their own right and have played against the top three defenses based on yards per point. So, there is a need here as well to adjust the skewing caused by the schedule. This is not to say that BC is even remotely close to being equal to the Montreal offense, but it does reflect that they are better than advertised. Many times the yards per point stats will reflect a significant advantage for one team and offer you a strong starting point for a sound wager.
Here is a solid 15 year proven system that support BC and has gone 69-34 for 67% winners since 1996. Play on road dogs or pick that are revenging a loss versus opponent and are off a loss against a division rival. We fid that BC lost to Saskatchewan in Week 2 by a straight up 37-18 loss and were installed as 2 1/2 point favorites. In addition, they are coming of divisional home loss to Calgary 27-22 and were 2 point dogs. By John Ryan at sbforum.com
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